No. 87 of 108
September 8, 2025
The domestic oil industry is contracting. Conoco Phillips is laying off 25% of its staff, following Chevron’s February layoffs of 20%. Decrease in demand as the economy slows has lowered price/barrel (though drivers haven’t necessarily experienced decreases at the pump). Oil producers are also experiencing rising tariff-related costs of steel and other components, in addition to inflation. The price/barrel can’t rise to meet costs because of lower demand and the strategic decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to keep prices low. Oil production forecasts range from a drop of 300,000 barrels/per day (worst case) to an increase of 200,000 barrels/day (best case), the smallest increase since the COVID economy. The Trump Administration’s policies to gut the alternative energy industry does not aid the domestic oil industry if costs rise as demand levels or shrinks.
Math counts, and we can’t count on math being simple arithmetic. The oil industry celebrated the attack on the alternative energy industry, perhaps not remembering or not understanding that their most significant production (and profit) period was during the Biden Administration, which was pumping alternative energy in every way possible. The Biden Administration notably said almost nothing about increased domestic oil production. The current ruler, frequently exhorting “drill, baby, drill!”, cannot compel companies to work against their economic interests. Since math is not just simple arithmetic, the universe will produce ironic plot twists to remind us: the universe keeps connecting us, and the more we attempt to control it the more twisted our lives become. Twisted is not the same as fruitfully intertwined.